The Party of “OH GOD NO!”

Our goal here is not to tell you anything you might not already know, but to spur discussion around the events of the last week. It's particularly striking that last week saw the combination of a highly complex supply chain covert action with an airstrike that eliminated key Hezbollah commanders, one of whom was reportedly involved in the 1983 U.S. Embassy bombing in Beirut. In one week Hezbollah went from the "Party of God" to the "Party of OH GOD NO!"

The simultaneous detonation of explosives hidden within pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah operatives not only demonstrates Israel's deep intelligence penetration but also marks a shift in how modern warfare integrates cyber and physical attack vectors with the age-old practice of supply chain attacks. Israel’s likely operation didn't just aim to cause casualties but served as a statement of technological and intelligence superiority, disrupting Hezbollah's communication networks in a manner that’s both innovative and unsettling for its targets. In essence, they embodied the classic "all your base are belong to us" meme.

September 17 - 18, 2024 - The Pager Gambit

In an unprecedented move, thousands of pagers and hundreds of walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah operatives exploded. This sophisticated attack, reportedly orchestrated by Israeli intelligence, marked one of the most significant security breaches for Hezbollah, illustrating Israel's advanced capabilities in supply chain infiltration and covert action.

This operation might have roots going back over a decade. In 2011, Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah publicly advised his operatives to stop using mobile devices for communications due to electronic surveillance concerns, leading to a switch to alternative devices like pagers. This shift could indicate that Israel either began laying the groundwork for this operation shortly after Nasrallah's announcement or recently assessed the operational advantage of infiltrating Hezbollah's new communication method. This long-term planning underscores the depth of Israel's intelligence efforts to counter Hezbollah’s activities.

September 20, 2024 - The Airstrike in Dahieh

The most consequential event unfolded in the Dahieh suburb of Beirut. At approximately 15:45 EEST, an Israeli F-35 conducted a strike that not only demolished an apartment building but also struck at the heart of Hezbollah's command structure. Here's what we know:

• The Target: Ibrahim Aqil, a senior Hezbollah official with a notorious history linked to the 1983 U.S. Embassy bombing in Beirut and the kidnapping of U.S. and other foreign nationals, was the primary target. His role in Hezbollah's Jihad Council and as head of the elite Redwan Force made him a high-value target. The U.S. State Department recently placed a $7 million reward for him as part of the Rewards for Justice program.

• The Attack: The precision strike killed Aqil, along with another commander, Ahmed Wehbe, and at least 43 others, including civilians. This operation was not just a tactical success in terms of neutralizing key figures but also sent a strong message about Israel's persistent intelligence penetration into Hezbollah's ranks.

• Casualties and Collateral Damage: The airstrike resulted in significant civilian casualties, which, while tragic, underscores the complexity of urban warfare where military targets are embedded within civilian locales. It also speaks to Israel's continued appetite for striking Hezbollah and Hamas targets, regardless of potential collateral damage.

Aqil's death is more than just the loss of a high-ranking militant. His involvement in historical acts of terrorism against the U.S. and his recent operational planning meant his removal was a strategic win for both Israel and U.S. interests. This operation serves as a stark reminder of the long memory and reach of intelligence operations when dealing with threats identified decades ago.

These actions elicited expected reactions from all parties involved or affected. In Lebanon, Prime Minister Mikati's condemnation reflected the ongoing political fallout from such strikes, highlighting Israel's disregard for international norms when it perceives an imminent threat. Hezbollah’s statement on Aqil's martyrdom indicates no immediate shift in strategy but suggests that an escalation in retaliatory measures could be imminent, though likely unmatched to the psychological effects dealt by Israel. Within the U.S., National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan implicitly supported the operation, highlighting it as justice for past American victims, aligning with broader U.S. policy against terrorism.

Conclusion

This series of events indicates a potential escalation in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. From a security analysis standpoint:

• Increased Retaliation: Hezbollah will likely seek to restore its image of strength, possibly through attacks against Israeli or even American targets abroad.
• Intelligence Wars: The breach in Hezbollah's communication security might lead to an overhaul of their operational security, potentially delaying their response to this setback. We might even see the emergence of carrier pigeons or Dixie cups and string!

In conclusion, while Israel's operations demonstrated its resolve and capability to strike deep within Hezbollah's stronghold, the broader implications for regional stability remain uncertain. As now outside observers from the intelligence community, we recognize these events not just as isolated military actions but as critical junctures in the ongoing story of Middle Eastern geopolitics. These indeed are interesting times.